The 'Bad Neighbor' Policy

Usually, when something doesn't make sense or there are multiple possible solutions to a question one applies the principle known as "Occam's Razor." This basically states that if there are two explanations the "simpler," the one with less assumptions, should be taken as the primary hypothesis. India's recent aggressions in the Indo-Bangladesh border leaves one with at least hypotheses, neither of which casts Delhi in a good light.

In the first (and the more simpler), we may surmise that Delhi has lost control over its far-flung Meghalaya-based Border Security Forces.

In the second Delhi has decided that, regardless of the pro-India government in power in Bangladesh, it will press its border claims. In this hypothesis Delhi doesn't appear to care that it is simply gift-wrapping more ammunition for the anti-India bogeyman speeches of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami.

This hypothesis would also tie into the first and will probably be verified upon the eventual press release from Delhi that the BSF units in question acted of their own volition and that it has summarily dismissed the low-ranking officers responsible.

In this latest incident, BSF troops took position within Bangladesh and refused to vacate until BDR troops took up a stronger position and forced the BSF to depart under "strong protests." The Director General of the BDR noted there were still some outstanding border claims leftover from the 1948 Partition (New Nation).

Bangla Nation hopes that the former hypothesis is the case, though this would be an embarrassment for the Congress Party. For the latter would signify that Delhi has little interest in being the 'good neighbor.' Taking Awami League's pro-India stance as cheap change would severely hamper a number of India's efforts particularly counter-terrorism and regional hegemony.

In counter-terrorism, India needs the cooperation of Bangladesh to effectively police and, eventually, govern the border. It is no secret that Islamist militant groups cross the Indo-Bangladesh frontier (see...).

India's status as sole regional hegemon would be challenged if the Awami League forsakes its pro-India stance. If Awami League cannot find a reliable political ally in the Congress Party where else would they turn? Certainly not to Pakistan, but to China.

Bangla Nation imagines that the last thing Delhi would want would be the Awami League cosying up to the People's Republic.

Rather than sending in the BSF to claim and possibly start a shooting-skirmish, Delhi (and especially the Congress Party0 would be well advised to diplomatically engage Dhaka on resolving the outstanding border issues, as well as the status of the enclaves and exclaves.

Addendum: In a odd twist, a pre-scheduled battalion-level flag meeting between the BDR and BSF was to take place as well in Jakiganj sub-district, not far from the recent flashpoints (Daily Star). This twist makes one wonder as to Delhi's grasp of this situation.

Empty words from the Elephant

Despite its size the elephant is not generally acknowledged to be the king of the forest or of the savanna. That title is reserved for the tigers and the lions. The elephant, in most circumstances, does not cause smaller animals to run, hide, or otherwise avoid its presence. The elephant is more a part of the community than the lion or tiger.

Delhi, assuming it wants to enjoy a good relationship with its neighbors in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), might still need to learn this lesson. India is the regional elephant - demographically, economically and politically. This status, and the region's history since independence, can make its neighbors a bit anxious - and that is probably an understatement. Whether or not Delhi has genuine goodwill towards its neighbors will never be known but a recent border spat with Bangladesh, and events over the preceding weeks, call it into question.

Near the Shreepur border (Jaintapur, Sylhet) the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) have alleged that Indian Border Security Forces (BSF) are actively assisting the Khasi community in Meghalaya with resolving land disputes - across the Indo-Bangladesh border. The allegations state that BSF troops, over the last three days, have walked across the border and "captured" disputed land by removing flags that the BDR had placed (New Nation). It is very likely that the Khasi's border dispute is with Khasis in Bangladesh - the tribal community had been split in 1948 during Independence and Partition.

By itself these allegations are serious the BSF is assisting in resolving land disputes, making a mockery of the civil justice system. That these disputes are across an international boundary, makes the BSF's actions a casus belli.

But there's also another dimension. Two weeks ago the BSF and BDR held a flag meeting in which they pledged to maintain a "tension-free" border. At the Tinbigha Corridor point (Patgram sub-district, Lalmonirhat) the BSF Deputy Inspector General of Jalpaiguri Sector agreed "not to open fire or kill innocent Bangladeshis." Besides, the BDR and BSF agreed to address other cross-border issues including human and drug trafficking (New Nation).

Within a week the BSF Director General ML Kumawat held a conference with his BDR counterparts in Dhaka. The discussion featured topics such as the continued murder of Bangladeshi citizens on the border, the repatriation of criminals, and border development and policing (Daily Star). Since the beginning of July the BSF has killed at least 4 people in addition to the land-grabbing (13 July, 16 July, 21 July).

If the recent BSF actions, regarding the "capturing" of land, were undertaken unilaterally, without the consent of Delhi or BSF command than the officers responsible should be held responsible for their brazen disregard for international law. If these actions were taken with the consent of Delhi - then not much can be done.

As the regional hegemon, India will act as it sees fit. However, only through cooperation (and trust) will the region progress in any meaningful way. Trust is not built through holding a conference and simultaneously "capturing" land.