JMB believes in "Minus 2" as well

The problem of border security in the Indian-Bangladesh frontier has been highlighted in a recent confession from JMB bomb expert, "Boma Mizan." What's more, the JMB cadres that infiltrated the border were not only attempting to disrupt the recent Parliamentary elections, but kill current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (AL) and Opposition leader Khaleda Zia (BNP). Finally, "Boma Mizan" revealed that the infiltrators themselves weren't Bangladeshis. They were Indians.

His confession simply illustrates once more that improvements in border control must occur if Bangladeshis are to enjoy any security. It also highlights the necessity for the Bangladeshi and Indian governments to cooperate as much as possible to not only police and govern the borders but to address the underlying factors contributing to the ease in which militant organizations can recruit citizens. Finally, it should be a wake up call to the BNP, Ms. Khaleda Zia specifically; this is the group that senior members of your party are suspected to have protected, this is the group that your government (in coalition with the JIB) subsequently banned, and now one of their leaders has admitted to attempting to kill you.

According to an investigator, "Boma Mizan" admitted that JMB had a network in West Bengal but that it was "weakening gradually." The ring had, apparently, been setup by executed chief Abdur Rahman. Importantly, "Boma Mizan" identified the individual in West Bengal who engaged in dawati/invitational activities for the JMB.

According to his confession, 10 Indians infiltrated into Bangladesh with the goal of preventing the December 2008 parliamentary polls by eliminating the "high profile" candidates, including Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda Zia. However, due to arrests by Bangladeshi security forces the plan was not carried out. Allegedly, the Indian JMB members departed Bangladesh in early February.

Interestingly, "Boma Mizan" used to live in the village of Karimpur in Nadia district. During the 2008 Legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, JMB leadership "forbade" their Indian cadres from "casting their vote," but the Indian members refused and defected. Evidently there was a group of 20-25 Indians in the JMB (presumably in the Karimpur area) but "all of them left" and joined the Indian National League (INL), a Muslim political party. Similarly, 8-10 members in Lalgola in Murshidabad district also left and joined the INL. Finally, only about a dozen members are active in India and two Indian members are active in Bangladesh. (Daily Star)

This is a magnificent victory for Bangladesh and for India. Importantly, a number of Indian cadres abandoned the JMB and entered mainstream politics. It is clear that the JMB is slowly being dismantled for good. Bangladesh should provide any names or information to the Indian government to finally crush the western network of JMB in Bengal.

However, the confession also suggests that the JMB is getting desperate, the usage of Indian-nationals for the election disruption is an interesting move, perhaps it demonstrates the lack of viable recruits or cadres available to the JMB in Bangladesh? The targeting of the two venerable begums was probably an effort to show the Bangladeshi public that the group is still relevant. Their failure is encouraging. "Boma Mizan" did reveal part of the JMB's plan, to move into the "northern region" as they believe they have more "organization strength" in that area.

But perhaps the most encouraging news is the story of "Shahed" who was tasked with killing Ms. Khaleda Zia. After the plan failed, he "left Bangladesh for Swat in Pakistan to embrace martyrdom." Perhaps while the Indian cadres are realizing the potential danger of fighting with the group, other cadres in Bangladesh are seeing its futility.

Quicknote: Sidelining Reform, "Revolutionary" Elites Persist... for now

There is a notion, useful to the discussion of a country's early political history, that goes: the "revolutionary" leaders who led a country to independence are often themselves subject to a revolution. To put it simply, the revolutionary leaders are cast out.

It is not time for Bangladesh to undergo such a transition, though it seems to be coming. Late last week, the ruling Awami League held a national council the outcome of which saw five "reformists" dropped (New Nation). "Reformist" members of the BNP are still with the party, though they are concerned with their political futures considering what happened to their political adversaries (New Nation). At any rate, the BNP-reformers still have time to mull their position and decide a course of action, since the BNP national council probably won't occur before December 2009 (New Nation).

Friendly MPs from smaller parties have "exchanged pleasantries" with the recently sidelined Awami MPs and there are murmurs, regarding both groups, of floating new political parties. For their part, the reformers themselves have wisely not spoken directly on the subject as it is still much to early to discuss the establishment of two completely new political parties.

How does one best differentiate from two personality-driven political parties? That is fairly easy, discuss issues of concern and crush the culture of corruption and nepotism. The "reformers" are labelled as such because they were not adverse to the so-called "minus-two formula." This idea sought to remove both former Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia from politics altogether, and for a time (while they were both under house arrest on charges of corruption) it almost came to pass.

However, Bangladesh's return to parlimentary democracy is still too recent. When politics revert back to "normal:" the Opposition calling frequent hartals and refusing to take part in the Jatiya Sangsad, rampant killings of each other's supporters, and the co-opting of the groups like the Sarbaharas and militant Islamists - then perhaps the Bangladeshi electorate will decide that "enough is enough." For at this time, the old political parties will demonstrate that they really didn't learn anything from their two years exile from Parliament.

And at that point, the familial history of both venerable begums will not save their political careers.

But what if politics is corruption?

Isabel Guerrero, World Bank Vice President for South Asian Affairs, is visiting Bangladesh and has met with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Finance Minister AMA Muhith. On the issue of corruption we are only offered the statement: "government wants to establish a corruption-free, democratic society." But how? Without any clear plan, PM Hasina's words are nothing more than sugar for Ms. Guerrero's tea.

In stark contrast to this, PM Hasina matches her objectives to clear plans and programs. Rural healthcare needs are being met with the reactivation of community clinics. Higher educational attainment through free primary and secondary (presumably) education. Poverty reduction through multi-lateral regional cooperation with other SAARC (South Asian Assciation for Regional Cooperation) members.

Her only remark on the subject of corruption was 'we will not turn the anti-corruption drive into anti-politics drive like the previous government.' A barely veiled reference to her detention during the Caretaker Government (note that Zia and Nizami, BNP and Jamaat supremos, were also detained) (New Nation).

Given the current global economic climate, it is unsurprising that the World Bank is unwilling to provide funding for road development due to corruption. Like PM Hasina, Minister Muhith is ignoring the issue by simply denying the World Bank's impression that "provisions have been made to award deals to ruling party loyals" (Daily Star).

The Awami government must get serious with fighting corruption, not only will this allow the government to secure promised funding from the World Bank, it will also lead to additional aid once donors recover. Reducing corruption would reduce the costs and improve the impact of PM Hasina's various programs.

The World Bank should continue to withhold non-critical funding until corruption is reined in. The Bangladeshi government should make a concerted attempt to deal quickly with cases of corruption, sparing none regardless of position or "party loyalty." Preventing corruption will generate a number of benefits not only for the exchequer but local residents and politicians. Without corruption, politicians will find that their constituents will require their thoughtful attention. Constituents will realize that only respectable, "clean" politicians will bring PM Hasina's programs to their districts.

Inspired to Jihad, Joining the Offshoot?

Information derived from suspected militants over the last couple of months has presented a clearer picture of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and its offshoots, the Islam O Muslim and the new Jamaat-e-Muslimeen (JM). More importantly, new information has shown that the JMB and JM recruit at mosques under the banner of Dawat-e-Islam (DI). However, there is a legal question facing the Bangladesh, do DI's recruiting and advocacy activities at mosques constitute a criminal offense?

The above graphic (constructed with Compendium) illustrates the current picture of Islamist militancy in Bangladesh as Bangla Nation understands it, based solely on New Nation and Daily Star reports since January 2009.

Zahidul Islam ("Boma Mizan") arrested explosives expert of the JMB disclosed the existence of the JM and its current 'dawati' (invitational) activities taking place in Dhaka. 'Many JMB members we have arrested in recent times told us that they were members of Dawat-e-Islam and were first inspired in jehadi spirit through its activities. They later joined JMB,' according to a security official (Daily Star).

In April, seven members of the DI were arrested in Patharghata, Chittagong (possibly in Kotwali thana/police station) (Daily Star). However, this weekend's article noted that the seven members were acquitted by a Chittagong court because the police failed to prove their "involvement in militant activities." However, a Rapid Action Battalion (Rab) official asserted that "Jamaat-e-Muslimeen and Bangladesh-based Dawat-e-Islam are the same organization."

This is probably a bit too simplistc. While it seems there is little doubt that DI engaged in activities on behalf of JMB and possibly JM, it is unknown whether the JM and DI are the same organization. For one, the DI operates in over 70 countries, including Pakistan (hence the qualifier - Bangladesh-based). Jamaat-e-Muslimeen, on the other hand, has been billed as an offshoot of the JMB (like the Islam O Muslim organization).

The Chittagong Court made the right decision on acquitting the seven members of DI. After all, there was no evidence to suggest that they were themselves militants. This acquittal is a Bangladeshi victory for rule of law and the U.S., UK (and organizations like the HRW) should recognize it as such.

It is ironic that the rule of law saved those seven detainees. Hopefully, they will reflect on this and compare it to the countless videos of beheadings and abductions of individuals under the pretext of "justice."

Dropping the Ball.

Human Rights Watch often makes a big deal of the authoritarian tendencies of South Asian democracies. In "Ignoring Executions and Torture" (subtitled: Impunity for Bangladesh’s Security Forces), a 76-page report published in May 2009, the watchdog makes only a passing reference to the BDR mutiny three months before.

"However, there is credible evidence that several members of the country’s border security force, the Bangladesh Rifles, were tortured to death by the army following their detention as suspects in an apparent mutiny that took place in February 2009 and left more than 70 people dead."

Ignoring the jibe at the Bangladeshi government ("an apparent mutiny"). The Human Rights Watch has been uncharacteristically silent on the subject of these tortures, as over this weekend the 35th death of a BDR jawan was recorded.

However, the context presented by the Daily Star contains two notable items: 1.) the deceased was not accused in the mutiny case and 2.) his colleague noted that the jawan was complaining of chest pains that morning. In this instance, torture on the part of the army is probably not the cause.

An earlier death did sound a bit strange, another "chest pain" victim was said to have bore "several red marks." However, the article did not explicitly state that the Army was involved. The article also indicated, up to that point, four jawans had committed suicide, seven died of heart attacks, and nine of "other diseases" (Daily Star).

Yet the HRW has not issued a statement since May 2009. It may be that the organization is faced with a dilemma. The narrative of an authoritarian state's organs working in concert to oppress the common people breaks down somewhat when it is not oppressing its people - but its own security services.

Whatever the case, the deaths of each jawan needs to be investigated, particularly those that perished under mysterious circumstances.

Moreover, the Bangladesh Rifles should be reformed. The Army should no longer provide officers for the organization, pay should be improved to the greatest extent possible (perhaps with a redistribution of funding following the demobilization of the Army brigade that was recently recalled from the CHT), and the link between the BDR and the Ministry of Home Affairs should be strengthened.

Finally, a perspective shift needs to occur. The BDR, as the BBC points out, has never mutinied. The Army cannot claim to be such a stalwart back of democracy. General Ziaur Rahman (husband of current Opposition leader Khaleda Zia, BNP) and General Hussain Muhammad Ershad (MP, Jatiya Party) both attained the Presidency of Bangladesh through a military coup. Finally, the Caretaker Government, in power from 2007 to Dec 2008, had the backing of General Moeen U Ahmed, who retired in mid-June 2009 (New Nation).

Bangladesh, the U.S., UK, and Australia should support the reformation of the Bangladesh Rifles and they should ensure that the jawans are treated with the respect, dignity, and honor deserving of Bangladesh's "first line of defense."